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Warren Buffett says a question posed by AI has stumped economists for a century
Warren Buffett is the first to admit that he doesn't know much about artificial intelligence. This is in keeping with his longstanding philosophy of avoiding technology that is beyond his grasp. His massive stake in Apple, for example, his largest stock, even if it has been diluted, came about more as a consideration related to its consumer success than as a technology bet, he said at the weekend at Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting. But at this year's closely watched event in Omaha, the billionaire investor and Berkshire CEO and chairman couldn't avoid artificial intelligence as a topic on shareholders' minds.Buffett raised many questions about artificial intelligence. Calling artificial intelligence profound, Buffet said the technology is like a "genie" — once out of the bottle, it could have disastrous results. The worst fears he sees — the massive fraud capability enabled by artificial intelligence to threaten a cutting-edge science equivalent to nuclear weapons with unintended consequences and danger to humanity. And there's at least one question, Buffett said, that no one can answer when it comes to the impact of artificial intelligence on the world that can change every person's life on a daily basis. It's a question, he said, that has plagued the best economists for a century."It can create a tremendous amount of free time," Buffett said. “Now what people do with their free time is another question... I know a lot of people think that when they go to work at first what they want is free time – and what I like is actually having more problems to solve," said Buffett, who is famous for saying he has "danced" his way to work in his Omaha office for decades.Buffett pointed to the example of John Maynard Keynes, one of the most important economic thinkers of the modern era, who correctly predicted that output per capita would grow exponentially, but failed to predict what people would do with the increase in productivity. Keynes is generally regarded as the father of macroeconomics, best known for his support of government intervention through social and labor programs to stabilize the economy during economic downturns, including the Great Depression, and books such as "The General Theory of Employment , Interest, and Money,” which Buffett recommended to be added to a reading list.Productivity has been booming for the past several quarters. According to the BLS data, after a huge surge in productivity during Covid, there was a prolonged recession and only in the last four quarters has the data turned around, increasing by about 3% year-on-year. That recovery has led to questions from business executives about factors that could be at play, from artificial intelligence to back-to-office orders. But most say it is still too early in the technology to make any connection, drawing a distinction between AI that has been developed for years and where gains can be seen, versus the genetic AI that everyone is talking about. today, and this will take some time to appear in the data.Artificial intelligence will eventually be a major driver of labor productivity, even if it doesn't exist yet. IBM vice president and former head of the National Economic Council, Gary Cohn, told CNBC last week that the adoption of artificial intelligence is happening fast, and productivity gains are also happening, albeit slowly. "Every company is looking at AI and deciding where to help it," he said during a recent interview on CNBC's "Money Movers." "This is an evolution; we're going to evolve into this in the productivity game, and it will slowly feed into the economy," Cohn said. But he added: "I don't think we've seen the real increase in productivity from AI." Most companies are still in the stage of setting budgets for AI and the overall strategy of how it can help both customers and employees, and are trying to get into implementation mode.MongoDB CEO Dev Ittycheria, whose company released a suite of tools last week to help companies "inundated with artificial intelligence," recently told CNBC that executives have gone as far as asking when they will emerge the value and performance of artificial intelligence. The market is moving past the phase of value being concentrated only at the bottom tier, such as Nvidia and ChatGPT/OpenAI, and it is now critical for companies to prepare for the applications built on top of this infrastructure. "Clearly, there's a trend where we're going to 'hands-on' workflows, agents taking actions on behalf of the end user autonomously. It's a few ways, but people need to build apps and enrich the customer experience and save more costs on business and find new ways to grow." Productivity explosion and technologyProductivity booms are rare and tend to be once-in-a-generation events—the last was the mid-to-late 1990s leading up to the dotcom crash—a period of significant economic growth not primarily driven by job creation. work.The problem of technological progress reducing the number of jobs available is an ongoing concern and countless surveys have been published since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022 covering job losses or in terminology often used to reflect uncertainty about the accurate impact of jobs with "AI exposure."Companies like to say that AI won't replace jobs, but it will allow workers to focus on higher-value skills and tasks while handing over to machines the honest work that humans don't like anyway. However, about 37% of business leaders surveyed by Resume Builder said technology will replace workers in 2023, with 44% saying more layoffs will happen this year due to advances in artificial intelligence. However, historically technological developments - such as increased industrialization - have not proven to be the career killers that experts warn about.Due to the potential lack of job opportunities with the development of artificial intelligence, some experts, as well as billionaires and politicians, have expressed the need for a universal basic income, or UBI, in order to supplement lower or no wages and keep the economy afloat. Tech icons discussing the idea include Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg and Sam Altman. However, there is reason to be skeptical about the exact relationship between technology and jobs.In the late 1980s the words of the godfather of productivity research, Nobel laureate economist Robert Solow, "You can see the computer age everywhere except in productivity statistics."This was known as Solow's productivity paradox, and the boom in the late 90s would challenge it. But later research would show that there was actually a murky relationship between the dotcom era and productivity gains. A co-author of that work at McKinsey told the Harvard Business Review that Solow's embrace of the 1990s tech boom was "oversimplified," as was the subsequent view that the Internet drove the boom. of productivity.With those concerns and unanswered questions in mind, Buffett said that labor-intensive companies like Berkshire Hathaway must consider a balance between how technology can help them become more efficient without compromising danger to people. "I don't know how you make sure that happens any more than I know how to make sure that when you use two atomic bombs in World War II that you didn't create something that could destroy the world later on," Buffett said.
